研究 新型冠状病毒肺炎期间的小企业费用

As the 新型冠状病毒肺炎 pandemic continues to affect the physical and economic health of the U.S., 政策制定者对小企业部门的金融反应仍然有一个不完整的看法. 在大流行的最初几个月, the typical small business saw substantial 收入 and cash liquidity declines (Farrell, 小麦, 和Mac, 2020a, 2020c); moreover, 观察到小企业的失败率很高. (Bartik等人., 2020; Fairlie 2020a, 2020b). 这些观察与收入和现金流动性与小企业生存密切相关的观点是一致的(法雷尔), 小麦, 和Mac, 2020b). 然而, 在随后的几个月里, 现金结余大幅增加，并保持在远高于大流行之前的水平(法雷尔), 小麦, Mac 2020c, 2020年人口普查局).¹ 值得注意的是, 这些余额增加的同时，小企业收入仍处于显著低于疫情前水平的水平.²

自4月份以来的现金余额和收入轨迹，向政策制定者提出了一个重要问题:小企业在多大程度上继续向员工和其他供应商付款. 在大流行的最初几个月, 开支随着收入而急剧下降(法雷尔), 小麦, 和Mac, 2020a). 从四月中旬到五月, 现金结余急剧增加, but with a timing that was consistent with the arrival of cash inflows from federal programs including, 但不限于, the Payroll Protection Program and other CARES Act programs (Farrell, 小麦, 和Mac 2020c). Less clear is whether expense growth accelerated after these liquidity increases, 或者他们是否继续追踪缓慢的收入复苏. 更详细地了解费用的进展对于围绕向该部门提供适当现金流动性的政策辩论至关重要, and the potential for further shutdowns and 收入 losses in the future.

Figure 1: While small business cash balances were elevated through September, expenses 到九月底 2020 were 7 percent lower than they were at the end of September 2019

12bet官方银行研究所的数据显示，尽管许多小企业在夏季的几个月里大幅增加了现金流动性, expense growth did not materially outpace 收入 growth through September. 图1描述了每周的中位数余额, 收入, 以及样本公司的费用增长 from the week ending March 3^rd 直到9月25日结束^th. In these data, median balance growth dropped to -15 percent during the week ending April 10^th在截至8月21日的一周内，该指数达到峰值^st at 41 percent, and then gradually tapered to 35 percent by the week ending September 25^th. 正如之前的研究所指出的, large increases in cash balances followed just after PPP applications resumed in late April, 而余额的直接增长很可能是由于收到了PPP基金——这种增长不太可能是由于小企业通过削减开支而节省的资金超过了收入(法雷尔), 小麦, 和Mac, 2020c). 然而, our most recent data show that median balances continued to climb for several months after that point. 具体地说, 5月初至9月底的余额增长轨迹可能受到运营和融资现金流的双重驱动.

尽管现金流动水平较高, Figure 1 also shows that typical small business expenses remained depressed, 到9月底下降了7%, 并密切关注收入的缓慢复苏. 来自薪资处理机构的行政数据显示，9月份小企业就业人数也出现了类似的下降, suggesting that small businesses have reduced payments to both employees and other suppliers.³  值得注意的是, expenses may be beginning to climb more quickly than 收入. 五月初到七月初, median 收入 growth was often higher than median expense growth, 与余额持续上升的轨迹一致, and small business financial responses after other disasters (Farrell and 小麦, 2018). 与此形成鲜明对比的是, 从七月初到九月底, 支出增长中值通常高于收入增长中值, consistent with flattening balance growth and the beginning of a decline in median balances.

表1:各个城市的消费增长差异很大

The overall shape of expense trajectories was similar across cities, 尽管费用增长和下降的程度差别很大. 表1显示了三周的中位数支出增长，这是4月份中位数现金余额总体下降幅度最大的一周, 8月份余额中值增幅达到峰值的一周, and the last week in our data series in September—across 25 metro areas. 在圣何塞, 西雅图, 纽约, 和旧金山, 截至9月底，大多数小企业的支出比52周前至少降低了10%. 与此形成鲜明对比的是, in Sacramento and Atlanta, expenses had returned to levels observed 52 weeks prior.

图2:与2019年9月底相比，2020年9月底典型的小餐馆支出下降了18%

最后, 我们的数据表明，许多行业的小企业都经历了这种整体的费用增长模式. Figure 2 shows median expenses growth for four industries: restaurants, 个人服务, 零售, 以及医疗保健服务. 在大流行开始时, restaurants and 个人服务 saw some of the most severe drops in 收入 and balances, 零售 small businesses saw declines that were still large if less so, while health care services firms experienced a more modest decline (Farrell, 小麦, 和Mac, 2020a). 整个夏天, restaurants and 个人服务 continued to see the largest decreases in expenses, with expenses still lower by 18 and 19 percent 到九月底, 分别. 在某种程度上，这些较低的费用反映了这些行业的企业在夏季吸引和服务客户方面的相对无能, 面对即将到来的冬季的挑战，它们的所有者可能更倾向于限制付款. 值得注意的是, 到九月底, expenses at health care service providers were only two percent lower than 52 weeks prior, and expenses at 零售 firms had returned to parity with expenses from the prior year.

致谢

We thank Anuradha Raghuram for her hard work and vital contributions to this research.

如果没有我们的合作伙伴12bet官方消费者的关键支持，这一努力是不可能实现的 & Community Bank and Corporate Technology Solutions teams of data experts, 包括迈克尔·阿吉拉尔, Kyung Cho-Miller, 安普Deshpande, 安德鲁·戈德堡, 梅丽莎高盛, Senthilkumar Gurusamy, 德里克-, 布莱恩·马多克斯, 阿尔伯特·雷蒙德, 安东尼·鲁伊斯, Subhankar Sarkar, Breann Zickafoose, and from our internal partners and 12bet官方 研究所 team members including Haley Dorgan, 伊丽莎白·埃利斯, Alyssa Flaschner, 菲奥娜格雷格, 考特尼黑客, 克里斯Knouss, 莎拉屈尔, Sruthi饶, Parita沙, 特里梅恩史密斯, 颊严厉, 尼古拉斯Tremper, 和Preeti Vaidya.

我们要感谢12bet官方的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙 & Co., for his vision and leadership in establishing the 研究所 and enabling the ongoing research agenda. Along with support from across the Firm—notably from Peter Scher, 马克斯Neukirchen, Joyce Chang, 玛丽安湖, 詹妮弗Piepszak, Lori啤酒, 德里克·沃尔德伦, 朱迪·米勒——该研究所拥有资源和支持，开创了一种新的方法，为全球经济分析和洞察力做出贡献.