研究 Understanding Income Volatility and the Role of the Online Platform Economy

即使在美国.S. economy continues to create thousands of jobs each month, 没有足够的数据来检验工人经常经历的收入波动. 我们知道，个人经历了高度的收入和支出波动. 然而,, 我们需要更清楚地了解这种波动的根本原因，以便为决策者提供数据，更好地为成功解决这一普遍问题的政策干预提供信息. What variations in income do individuals experience month-to-month? Who is being impacted the most by changes in their earnings? What are they doing to supplement or substitute these shifts in income? And, how heavily are they relying on new ways to work to mitigate this volatility?

The newest report from the 12bet官方 研究所, "薪水、发薪日和在线平台经济:收入波动的大数据," answers these questions by analyzing an 匿名 以100万大通客户为样本，试图确定收入波动的主要来源，并对在线平台经济的规模和增长提供迄今为止最深入的研究.

By examining consumers" take home pay, the 研究所 explores their level of income volatility and, 第一次, looks at the growing usage of online platforms, 比如Uber, Etsy和Airbnb, as a potential resource to mitigate fluctuations in income.

How Paychecks and Paydays Contribute to Income Volatility

Building on our first report, Weathering Volatility, 我们发现，收入波动对各个收入阶层的个人来说都是一个现实存在的现象:

找到一个: 收入波动, prevalent across the board, was most marked among the young, those in the bottom income quintile, and those living in the West.

发现二: 中等收入个人在几个月内经历了近500美元的劳动收入波动, with spikes in earnings larger but less frequent than dips. For median-income individuals, this volatility translated into an average $475 change, including changes greater than $903 one quarter of the time.

发现三: 税后收入的逐月波动(86%)主要来自不同工作的薪酬差异. Within-job volatility in earnings stems primarily from: variation in paycheck amounts (72%)和 支付频率 (28%):

• Variation in paycheck amounts: Sixty-one percent of individuals experienced an end-of-year pay spike some time between December and March that resulted in a 30 percent increase in pay; and 61 percent of individuals experienced other idiosyncratic fluctuations in income from their job that resulted in absolute changes in labor income of approximately 27 percent in a positive or negative direction.
• Changes in pay frequencies: Eighty percent of individuals experience the "five-Friday effect".
  • 55%的人的工作是每两周发一次工资，在有三次工资的月份里，他们的工资增长了26%.
  • Twenty-five percent of individuals had a job that pays weekly; they experienced a 14 percent increase in pay in months with five paychecks.

发现四: Almost four in 10 individuals experienced a job transition in a given year, contributing 14 percent of the month-to-month volatility in labor income.

A new way to earn: the Online Platform Economy

When it comes to managing persistent levels of income volatility, a subset of the population is turning to the Online Platform Economy. 人们可以通过这些平台轻松快捷地赚钱，这使其成为替代和补充收入的可行工具.

The 研究所 analyzed 匿名 data from more than 260,从2012年10月到2015年9月，000名参与者从在线平台经济中的30个不同平台之一获得收入. 我们将在线平台经济分为两个不同的部分:劳动力平台, 比如Uber and TaskRabbit, 它允许个人执行独立的任务或项目以及资本平台, such as eBay or Airbnb, which allow individuals to rent assets or sell goods peer-to-peer.

Here's what we learned about this new way to work:

发现五: 尽管有1%的成年人在一个月内从在线平台经济中获得收入, more than 4 percent participated over the three-year period.

• The monthly participation rate increased 10-fold over the three year-period, and the cumulative participation rate increased 47-fold over the three years. In any given month, 0.4%的成年人(占所有平台参与者的40%)从劳动平台获得收入.6%的成年人(占所有平台参与者的62%)从资本平台获得收入. 因此，总数为2.5 million adults are participating in the Online Platform Economy in the U.S.
• Among all participants over the three years, 21 percent participated in labor platforms, 78 percent participated in capital platforms, and 2 percent participated in both.
• 然而，在平台参与的第一个月之后，参与的人非常少. 用于劳动平台, individuals earned money in only 56 percent of subsequent months; for capital platforms, the number drops to 32 percent.
• Most individuals only earn from one platform, 尽管那些使用劳动平台的人更有可能使用多个平台(14%), than capital platform participants (just 1 percent use multiple platforms).

发现六: The Online Platform Economy was a secondary source of income, and participants did not increase their reliance on platform earnings over time.

• Average monthly earnings were $533 for labor platforms, representing 33 percent of participants" total monthly income. 资本平台的平均收入为314美元，占月总收入的20%.
• 从参与者活跃月数和活跃月数占平台总收入的比例来看，对平台收益的依赖一直保持稳定.
  • As of September 2015, 25 percent of labor platform participants relied on platform income for more than 75 percent of their total income; for capital platforms, 只有17%的参与者的平台收入占总收入的75%以上.

找到七: Earnings from labor platforms offset dips in non-platform income, but earnings from capital platforms only supplemented non-platform income.

• 在总, 劳动力平台收入在很大程度上弥补了平台收入在非平台收入中14%的缺口. In months with platform earnings, it contributed an additional 15 percent of income, increasing total income by less than 1 percent.
• 资本平台收益倾向于补充而非替代其他收益. 在有平台收益的月份里，非平台收益往往会下降不到1%, and capital platform earnings contributed another 7 percent, raising income by 7 percent.

有了这份报告, we can begin to build a deeper understanding of our labor market, how it's changing and how those changes are affecting individuals" income. 与及时, 相关数据, 我们可以做出更明智的政策决定，跟上经济变化和创造就业机会的步伐. This is the mission of the 12bet官方 研究所. 我们将继续利用我们前所未有的数据集，深入研究劳动力市场的动荡，为决策者提供事实和分析，通过减少收入波动来增加经济机会.

法雷尔 是12bet官方研究所的创始总裁兼首席执行官. 以前, 戴安娜是麦肯锡政府中心和麦肯锡全球研究所的全球负责人. 她曾在白宫担任国家经济委员会副主任和总统经济政策副助理.