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April 2020
Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 政策制定者正在努力应对减轻病毒对家庭传播的努力可能产生的短期和长期经济影响. Unemployment is rising at an unprecedented pace, and the U.S. government is issuing stimulus payments to hundreds of millions of Americans. In a new report, “Racial Gaps in Financial Outcomes: Big Data Evidence,12bet官方研究所提供了一个视角，展示了不同人群如何在新冠肺炎引发的经济衰退中管理收入波动. Drawing on data from between 2013 and 2018, 12bet官方研究所发现，与白人家庭相比，黑人和西班牙裔家庭的支出对短期收入波动更为敏感. 这一结果在很大程度上可以用我们观察到的流动资产的巨大种族差距来解释——黑人和西班牙裔家庭的流动资产只有30到40美分，而白人家庭每持有1美元. Our research suggests that even if Black, Hispanic, and White families experience the same declines in income during the COVID-19 crisis, Black and Hispanic families will likely reduce their everyday spending to a greater extent. Thus, 而旨在恢复损失收入的政府项目——包括失业保险和刺激支出——对所有群体都至关重要, such programs will be especially critical for Black and Hispanic families.
公共卫生数据已经显示，COVID-19对美国的影响在人口群体中分布不均. An analysis published by the Associated Press (AP) on April 8, 2020年的研究发现，在所研究的州和地区，黑人占COVID-19死亡人数的42%，尽管他们只占这些地区人口的21%. In Louisiana, one of the three states that we study in our new report, the gap is even starker: at the time of the AP analysis, 70 percent of Louisianans who had died of COVID-19 were Black, though Black individuals comprise just 32 percent of the state population.
While the full economic impacts of COVID-19 are still unknown, 黑人和西班牙裔家庭可能会比白人家庭经历更大的收入下降. For one, Black and Hispanic workers are slightly more likely 他们比白人工人按小时支付工资(而不是固定工资)，因此更容易被解雇, especially in the short term. Second, research indicates that Black and Hispanic workers are less likely to have access to paid leave. In the context of COVID-19, 这些差距很可能以黑人家庭收入下降幅度更大的形式表现出来. This is concerning in light of our research, which shows that Black and Hispanic families earn less than White families to begin with, roughly 70 cents for every dollar earned by White families. Moreover, they have fewer liquid asset reserves to fall back on. For every dollar held by White families, Black families have just 32 cents and Hispanic families just 47 cents.
12bet官方研究所的研究量化了非自愿失业对不同种族群体消费和福祉的不同影响. In an event-study examining families who receive unemployment insurance, we find that a $1.失业导致的收入下降(在计入已领取的失业保险福利后)与非耐用品支出的下降有关.46 among Black families, $0.43 among Hispanic families, and $0.28 among White families (Figure 1). Thus, while all families tend to reduce spending upon job loss, Black and Hispanic families do so to a larger extent. 这些数字表明，当一个家庭因失业而每月收入减少500美元时, Black and Hispanic families reduce their monthly spending by roughly $230 and $215, respectively—a $75 to $90 larger cut in spending than White families make ($140), resulting in perhaps one less trip to the grocery store per month.
Figure 1: After involuntary job loss, Black and Hispanic families cut their everyday spending more so than White families
例如，我们预计在面临中等收入损失的个人中，消费变化也会出现类似的差异, among workers who are not laid off but whose hours are cut. In a companion academic paper, 当雇主提高或降低所有员工的工资时，我们研究了家庭支出的路径. Even in the face of these smaller employer-driven income changes, Black families alter consumption by 50 percent more than White families, and Hispanic families by 20 percent more than White families. For example, 一个月的劳动收入下降500美元，导致黑人家庭的消费下降146美元，西班牙裔家庭的消费下降121美元, compared to $100 for White families.
In addition to describing disparities in families’ responses to income loss, “财务结果中的种族差距”报告还研究了家庭在收到退税后的支出变化. 我们在这个问题上的研究结果告诉我们，家庭可能会如何应对联邦政府根据《12bet官方》授权的刺激支出 CARES Act; these stimulus payments will be similar to tax refunds in magnitude (most tax refunds and stimulus payments 在1200美元到4000美元之间)和时间安排(家庭可以大致预测他们的到达日期). In our report, 我们发现黑人和西班牙裔家庭在收到退税后的支出增加幅度更大. Thirty days after receiving a tax refund, Black families have spent 52 percent of their refund, while Hispanic families have spent 49 percent and White families just 38 percent (Figure 2). Thus, 同样，黑人和西班牙裔家庭的支出比白人家庭的支出对收入下降更敏感, their spending is also more sensitive to increases in income. In short, 与白人家庭相比，经济刺激计划可能对黑人和西班牙裔家庭更有帮助，使他们能够维持消费水平，或弥补他们可能推迟的支出.
Figure 2: Thirty days after receiving the tax refund, Black and Hispanic families had spent roughly 50 percent of the refund. White families had spent 38 percent of the refund.
For those whose aim is to reduce racial disparities in financial outcomes, it is essential to understand why racial groups exhibit different levels of sensitivity to income changes. In our report, 我们发现，流动资产的种族差异几乎完全解释了消费敏感性的差异. We don’t claim to have proven a causal link, 但是当我们控制了流动资产的种族差异(特别以流动资产来衡量) buffer, or how many months’ worth of spending one has in liquid assets), racial gaps in the spending response to income fluctuations largely disappear. Thus, if Black, Hispanic, and White families all had the same levels of liquid assets, 我们可能会看到，在他们对非自愿失业的支出反应上，几乎没有种族差异, payroll fluctuations, or the arrival of the tax refund.
这些结果表明，寻求减轻COVID-19经济负担的政策制定者应考虑将工作重点放在流动性资产缓冲最低的家庭上. 这些努力可能采取收入支持计划的形式，如扩大失业保险, paid leave, and direct stimulus payments; alternatively, policies that help low-liquid-asset families to reduce large expenses (e.g., rent payments and medical expenses) or build assets may also be effective. Regardless of the specific policies implemented, decision makers should recognize that without policy intervention, 即使是短期的经济衰退，对于流动性资产较低的家庭来说也是最难度过的, disproportionately so for Black and Hispanic families.
Authors:
Diana Farrell: JPMorgan Chase Institute, President & CEO
Fiona Greig: JPMorgan Chase Institute, Director of Consumer Research
Chris Wheat: JPMorgan Chase Institute, Director of Business Research
Max Liebeskind: JPMorgan Chase Institute, Research Associate